The prediction of the outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is critical in terms of making the right therapeutic decision for an individual patient. Prognostic markers that could identify patients at high risk of rapid radiographic progression would provide a justification for an early aggressive treatment in patients with a possible extensive destruction within a few years after disease onset. A pilot risk model predicting rapid radiographic progression was presented in this paper. Data that have been used in this model included the radiographic pictures from the ASPIRE study where methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy or MTX in combination with infliximab were compared. This model selected baseline risk factors available in routine clinical practice such as C-reactive protein, ESR, number of swollen joints and rheumatoid factor. This matrix risk model can be used to predict the risk of joint damage progression in RA patients, especially those with early disease.